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Democratic NH Predictions
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In This Issue:
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Tuesday, January 27th
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ANYTHING NEW IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?
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[This was written and sent out late on Monday night, the 26th of January, before the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, the 27th]
Okay, here’s the situation in New Hampshire. Kerry is leading in every single poll. Some polls, though, put Dean pretty close to Kerry (a Zogby poll puts Dean and Kerry within the margin of error, effectively tied for first). Dean lost a lot of support after Iowa, but has been climbing his way back up the ladder. Pundits expect Kerry to win, but some think it’s possible that Dean could pull off the upset.
The thing about New Hampshire is that polls and pundits are usually very inaccurate when it comes to New Hampshire. These voters are famous for making up their minds at the last minute, for surprising everyone, and for acting independently and bucking the trends. So if history is our guide, anything can happen.
If I were a betting man, I personally wouldn’t put money down on any of the candidates because the astrology doesn’t make the issue particularly clear to me. I lean towards Kerry winning, but I do even have a couple of doubts with him.
Normally, you may have noticed, I only like to make predictions on this newsletter for things that are NOT expected to happen. I figure that’s the best way to show what astrology can (usually) do. For example, last year I predicted the Tampa Bay Bucs to win the Super Bowl even though the odds had them losing to the Raiders by 4. I also predicted that Bush would NOT get the international support he was seeking in Iraq at a point in time when everyone fully expected that he would. Last week, I thought that Kerry would win, even though the majority of political pundits were predicting Dean. This week I’m not going to offer anything too surprising, because I don’t think I’m seeing anything too surprising. But since a lot of people wrote me and asked for New Hampshire predictions, I’ll tell you what I’m thinking, even if it isn’t anything earth-shattering.
Here are my thoughts about the transits for each candidate:
John Kerry
(December 11, 1943, 7:10 am, Denver, CO)
I think Kerry is likely to win, but I’m not as sure as I was last week in Iowa with him.
There is an enormous grand cross forming in his chart between his natal Sun-Moon opposition (full, waxing moon) and the transiting Venus-Jupiter opposition. You would think that’s no good, right? However, that Grand Cross involves Venus and Jupiter going over or aspecting his Sun-Moon midpoint, so it’s probably not as scary as you would initially tend to think. Especially in context with the rest.
The most interesting thing for Kerry may be that Mercury and Venus have been sextile for a very long time now, which is a kind of “recurrence” transit, triggering his natal Mercury-Venus sextile (which are involved in his phenomenally awesome yod). Edwards also shares this natal aspect, and it probably shows why Kerry and Edwards have been the media darlings of late.
Also, transiting Mercury conjoins his secondary progressed Venus. And tonight’s Moon-Mars conjunction is trine to his natal Jupiter. Very, very good.
But there are a number of minor aspects that seem challenging, and he does have transiting Mars squaring his Secondary Progressed Mercury. I still think he’s the most likely to win, though.
I still think that Kerry is likely to hit at least one significant speed bump over the next few months. It’s a little hard to imagine that right now, but it clearly appears to be there in his chart. Maybe it won’t be from his Democratic opponents. I don’t know; we’ll see. But I’m still guessing, like almost everyone else, that he’s going to win tonight.
Howard Dean
(November 17, 1948, 7:21 pm, Manhattan, NY)
There are a couple of positive things going on in Dean’s chart tonight, but my guess is not that there is not that much, and not enough altogether. One of the few exact aspects that he has is likely to be a negative one:
Transiting Chiron conjunct his Secondary Progressed Sun
That’s usually a real serious bummer of an aspect in a competition. This is interesting because it would seem to trigger the fact that he has a natal Chiron-Sun conjunction, which my research has found to be, usually, very weak for politicians. If you’d like to see that research, click the link at the end of this New Hampshire analysis.
The only reason I’m not completely writing Dean off is the transiting quincunx of both Venus and Mercury to his Pluto. But I’m guessing he doesn’t have enough planetary support to get the job done.
If I had to guess, I would say that Dean will be in real serious trouble after tonight. Even if he comes in second place, Dean is pretty much through in this Presidential race, because he can't win anywhere but maybe New Mexico the following week when MO, AZ, SC, OK, NM, ND, and DE hold their contests. Knowing Dean, he probably won’t accept defeat tonight even if he does lose badly. But between now and the time after the February 3rd primaries, it seems purely logical to me that he will probably have to concede the race. But maybe he'll be stubborn enough to hang in there for another month, even if he hasn't won a single state.
John Edwards
(June 10, 1953, 7:02 am, Seneca, SC)
Edwards has a real mix of transits, just as he did in Iowa. I don’t see any one transit being as good for him as the one I mentioned that he had in Iowa, when his surprising and strong 2nd place finish gave him a ton of good press. He had a phenomenal transit in Iowa. He doesn’t have one as good tonight, but he does have a lot of nice transits.
However, he also has one very restrictive transit. Transiting Saturn is making an exact conjunction with his natal Mercury tonight. I think it’s clear he is going to be denied something. The most obvious guess would be first place.
But the transiting Moon-Mars conjunction sextiles his natal Mars. And he’s having an exact Ceres return. And transiting Jupiter is trine his Sun. And transiting Venus is trine his Uranus. And his natal Mercury-Venus sextile is “recurring,” just as Kerry’s is. This guy is certainly not without support tonight. He clearly has a ton of it.
All in all, I can see Edwards doing quite well. I would guess he’ll win at least a strong third, or even second place. But that also depends on the wild card …
Wesley Clark
(December 23, 1944, 5:43 am, Chicago IL)
I’m completely torn when it comes to Clark. On the one hand, he is having his second Saturn Return, and a nearly exact Saturn-Saturn conjunction tonight; that looks really gloomy to me, especially because his natal Saturn receives nothing but hard aspects and sits in the 8th house in a number of house systems. The transiting quincunx of Mars to his Jupiter doesn’t do much for me either.
On the other hand, transiting Uranus is conjunct his Secondary Progressed Sun, which seems extremely powerful; this aspect could put him into the limelight, and conceivably score give him a big upset.
In other words, I don’t have a clue. If I had to guess, I’d say he probably won’t do too well tonight, but I really don’t know about Clark. He’s probably the biggest “wildcard” of the group.
Joe Lieberman
(Feb 24, 1942, 2:30 am, Stamford, CT)
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
He has no transiting aspects to his natal chart. I don’t think we’re going to see the Joe-mentum.
He has a couple of cool aspects to his secondary progressed chart, like Transiting Jupiter over his Secondary Progressed Moon. But I don’t think the planets are going his way right now. Maybe he’ll have a really classy moment as he concedes the race between today and the next week, and takes a Jupiterian vacation from running for President.
My odds to win first place in NH:
John Kerry: 65%
John Edwards: 15%
Howard Dean: 15%
Wes Clark: 5%
Joe Lieberman: 0%
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