Stock markets around the world continued their rallies
last week, with many reaching new multi-month and even multi-year
highs. And the same was true in the currency and precious
metals markets, with the Euro reaching yet another new all-time
high against the Dollar, and Gold soaring to a new 16-year
high.
The fact that the Dollar is falling, and both currency
and precious metals markets are rising, should not be a huge
surprise. Back in the presidency of George Bush Sr., Treasury
Secretary James Baker publicly orchestrated a declining Dollar
as a way to bring the U.S. out of recession, brought on by
the Persian Gulf conflict. The reasoning was that a falling
U.S. Dollar would make U.S. goods more affordable abroad,
and would help the profit-loss ledger of large corporations
that did business abroad. It worked.
In 2001, after George Bush Jr. was elected
to his first term as President, it was assumed (in this
column) that he
would eventually adopt a similar policy. Once the U.S. began
entering a recession in 2002, we became even more convinced
that such a shift in currency policy would be forthcoming.
Finally, in December 2002, Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neil
was forced to resign, after tax breaks and low interest rates
failed to spur the U.S. economy upward. Something had to
be done, and that something was to bring down the Dollar
again. It began immediately, with the appointment of Treasury
Secretary Snow in December 2002, and the Dollar hasn’t
stopped falling since. And as the Dollar falls, many large
corporations in the U.S.A. are once again showing healthy
profits.
But now there is a growing concern that
the Dollar could actually collapse. Could it? What does
Astrology have to
say about this possibility – a possibility that also
has direct consequences to the price of Gold?
First of all, the Financial Astrology Research FAR for
the Galactic Trader) software program shows that the greatest
volatility in Gold prices takes place when Jupiter transits
Virgo through Scorpio. That time band began in August 2003
and lasts through the end of 2006. During this period we
can anticipate Gold going way up, and then falling back down,
before this time band ends. The same will likely be true
with many currencies against the Dollar.
The second thing we need to remember is
the phasing of the Saturn-Pluto cycle. The entire cycle
lasts 32-37 years,
depending on Pluto’s elliptical orbit. Generally speaking,
the two-year period surrounding the conjunction is a time
of high interest rates, taxes, and federal deficits. The
economy is usually under great stress, and the stock markets
of the world are also under pressure. This was the case when
this cycle last began in 1982, and even the time before that,
in 1947. The world economic and political landscape was not
doing very well. However, that conjunction period is historically
a very good time to start investing in equity markets around
the world. It is the time to begin a capital appreciation
effort, like “buy and hold” stocks.
For the next 16-18 years, as Saturn moves from the conjunction
to the opposition, interest rates tend to come down, taxes
come down, the economy begins to prosper, and federal deficits
start turning to surpluses. The stock market tends to soar
during this period, until a time band within two years of
the opposition. The last times that Saturn was in opposition
to Pluto were in 1966 and 2001-2002. In 1966, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average hit 1000 for the first time.
But then the cycle reverses the second half of the Saturn-Pluto
cycle, from the opposition to the conjunction. By the time
Saturn moved into the waning square to Pluto in 1974, it
had lost nearly half of its value from those highs. In 2001,
the DJIA was also near its all-time high of 11,750. In May
2001, it was above 11,400, virtually a double top, and the
United States was enjoying its first budget surplus in nearly
4 decades. And now we have to wonder what will happen as
Saturn moves towards the waning square to Pluto in 2009-2010.
Already we see that the budget surplus has changed to a
record deficit in the U.S.A. as we have now entered the second
half of this cycle, the downward phase. But to his credit
(I think), President Bush is not repeating the mistake of
raising taxes as we head into this period. But he is allowing
the U.S. Dollar to fall to multi-year lows, and if a currency
panic should ensue, it could cause investors around the world
to pull their money out of the United States. Then the only
way to protect the Dollar, and keep investors invested in
U.S. markets, might be to raise interest rates. And indeed
that is what happened again this week, as the FED raised
its short-term interest rate for the 4th time this year,
with most analysts (including me) agreeing that more raises
of interest rates are yet to come. I base this conclusion
also on the fact that transiting Saturn is in Cancer, in
opposition to the natal Jupiter in Capricorn in the chart
of the Federal Reserve Board. Saturn transiting to this chart
indicates when the FED tightens rates, whereas Jupiter in
transit indicates when the FED tends to be more accommodative.
I don’t think a currency and/or interest rate panic
is going to ensue right away. In fact, I think we are at
least one year away from that prospect. But from late 2005
through the end of this decade, I believe that serious troubles
could start manifesting in the financial markets – and
hence world economy – if measures are not taken soon
to make sure the U.S. Dollar does find some level of support.
Such a support, at least temporarily, might
be about to happen. Mars has just entered Scorpio on November
11, where
it will remain until December 25. Venus will join Mars in
Scorpio November 22 through December 16. Scorpio is the sign
that governs debt and all debt-related instruments, like
Treasury Bonds and Notes, and hence currency prices. It also
has a lot to do with precious metals too, like Gold. Typically
Gold prices and foreign currency prices (vis-à-vis
the Dollar) will soar at some point, making an important
cyclical crest while Mars in Scorpio. They are soaring now
as the ingress begins. But as Venus enters Scorpio, currency
prices tend to experience a major reversal. Since they are
rallying now, we can anticipate that this will rally will
culminate shortly, perhaps even within the next 2 weeks.
Presently we are in the midst of a huge
cluster of geocosmic signatures, in effect November 4 through
December 5. The
midpoint of this cluster is also right about the time that
Venus enters Scorpio, November 19-22 (we don’t count
weekends). The midpoint of any cluster is always important.
It is the symbolic (and oftentimes literal) peak to the trend,
to the “energy,” symbolized by this gathering.
And in this case, it is 16 geocosmic signatures that are
gathering within this time span. That’s a lot! We speculated
last week that this was a symbol of an eruption, or earthquake,
and again we saw evidence of that literally last week.
But as we move out of this middle section, we will soon
come to the first of three passages of Jupiter forming a
waning trine to Neptune, a long-term planetary signature
that will be in effect through August 17, 2005. The first
passage occurs on November 29. This is a potentially very
peaceful influence, one that lends itself to cooperation
and good will. Maybe the passing of Yasser Arafat last week
will lead to renewed peace efforts in the Middle East, especially
with regards to Israel and her neighbors. Maybe President
Bush will reach across party lines and find someone from
the Democratic Party who has a history of helping the peace
process along in that region of the world, like either Jimmy
Carter or Bill Clinton. It is a unique opportunity for the
world to come together and forge a real peace agreement in
this troubled area, and for it to succeed, the United States
has to make a serious, non-partisan, effort. Not only might
it bring the world closer together, but it might also heal
the wounds of a divided nation following the recent election.
It could happen, given these harmonious aspects coming up.
But of course, as with all things astrological,
the ultimate outcome doesn’t just depend on astrology.
Astrology is only the choice-revealer, not the choice-maker.
Astrology
may describe the situation before us, but the ultimate outcome
of that situation depends more upon our own free will, and
individual or collective choice, made in that situation.
This is a special historic opportunity for George W. Bush
to truly take a step forward in his claim to be a uniter,
not a divider, of a nation composed of one people, and not
two parties. It is a chance for George W. Bush to take a
step forward to becoming a President of Peace, and not just
a President of War.
Announcement: The special pre-publication
discount on Forecast for 2005 book is now over. But you
can still pre-order next
year’s book at $39.95. As always, this book is written
between October and November, and is shipped out upon return
from the printer, around December 15. Order now and lock
in your reservation for next year’s book! For further
information on pre-ordering next year’s book, please
go to our website at www.mmacycles.com, and click the banner
on ORDERS or BOOKS.
Second
Announcement: Monday, November 15, is the last day
of a special pre-registration rate for the ISAR 2005 conference,
taking place next year in Chicago, under the final passage
of Jupiter trine Neptune, August 17-21. For more information,
go to www.isarastrology.com. There will be a special financial
astrology track at this conference, featuring Ray Merriman,
Arch Crawford, Grace Morris, and others.
Disclaimer
and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is
not to predict the future movement
of various financial
markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman
Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not
a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those
cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating
this column from English into a non-English language. This
weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader
on the relationship between astrological factors and collective
human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this
report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock
and financial markets throughout the world in the past week,
and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures
that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic
factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even
month, or even years, and the author’s understanding
of how these signatures will likely affect human activity
in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this
from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at
the military, political, economic, and even financial markets
of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be
made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is
to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological
climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The
hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological
dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events
and hence financial markets of the day.
No
guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being
made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely
the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author
nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for
those individual decisions. Reader should understand
that futures and options trading are considered high
risk.
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